Setting a daily fantasy baseball lineup for games to play at FantasyAces.com or DraftKings.com takes a lot of research and analysis – but two factors that top daily fantasy baseball players look at are what the weather is at various ballparks that day as well as what kind of ball park will the game be played at.
Below is my analysis of the impact of weather and ballpark on Daily Fantasy Baseball and why you need to consider it when you are creating lineups each time you play.
There are three types of weather that effect daily fantasy baseball and baseball in general. The first is precipitation. I want to begin by saying on average just over 1% of baseball games are rained out each fantasy baseball season so this is sometimes overblown. Even though only 1% of games get rained out there are usually only one or two games that have rain in the forecast. When looking at those games I go to weather.com to check out the exact percentages of rain for each hour. If there is a substantial chance of a rainout you should avoid all players from those games. If the weather looks like it is going to clear up but their might still be a little bit of rain, than it is OK to take hitters for your daily fantasy baseball lineup, but not OK to take any starting fantasy pitchers from that game. The reason is, if there is a 30+ minute delay the pitcher will get tired and have to be taken out of the game. The hitters will be fine and play the rest of the game.
The second type of weather that can affect daily fantasy baseball is wind. Wind is a factor in places like Chicago (the Windy City) where the wind can drastically change on a night-to-night basis. The only way the wind should influence your picks is if it is blowing more than 20mph. If the wind is blowing in towards home plate the pitcher should get a slight bump up and the hitters a slight bump down because long fly balls will more likely stay in the ballpark. If it is the opposite and the wind is blowing out then hitters will get the bump up and pitchers the bump down.
- Cold Temperatures
The third type of weather that affects daily fantasy baseball is cold temperatures. When the weather is cold during the early or late part of the MLB season it is good to select pitchers pitching where it is cold as hitters have a tougher time hitting the ball in cold weather. On the flip side it is good to avoid hitters in cold weather games. Obviously the opposite is true in the summer months of the baseball season as the heat and humidity can cause the ball to fly further giving a bump in value to fantasy hitters and a downgrade to fantasy pitchers.
The next thing I am going to discuss is the impact of ballpark factor on making daily fantasy baseball lineups. There are baseball parks with either shorter distances to the fence or where the ball travels further because of the climate – this is where hitters should be used more. An example of this is Coors Field. One thing that I must warn you about is that DraftKings factors ballpark factor into their salary algorithm so ballpark factor should not be used on their site. Fields like Petco Park favor pitchers because the ball does not travel as well and the fences are further back than usual. Use these articles Hitter Friendly Ballparks and Pitcher Friendly Ballparks to help you decide which stadiums to target and which to avoid.
RECAP: Always check the forecast to make sure your player’s game will not get rained out. Playing all players whose games are played already gives you a slight edge because many people do not check forecasts and play fantasy baseball players in rained out games. Lastly use wind, extreme temperatures, and ballpark factors to help you select your daily fantasy baseball players.